Hellboy over 24.5

[Oren1]

-115 3.6 units to win 3

Hellboy....... Well first off just off the top of my head I'd predict 26-27 million for this movie, and the research supports this prediction for the most part. It's been doing pretty well on the moviefone chart, similar to Starsky and Hutch, and it has a great buzz number, 29, similar to Dawn of the Dead. The only mark against it is that message board buzz is a bit sub-par. But, being that it will draw some kids as well as internet geeks I'd say that it's not that big of a deal. Plus, superhero movies almost ALWAYS break 25 million, the only ones that didn't in recent times that I see are Blade, Spawn, and The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen($23m), and I'd say that Hellboy has done a better job at marketting and looks more slick and polished than those three, especially Spawn which was a bit on the cheesy side. Even Daredevil managed 40 million.

1
Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375
3,876
$114,844,116
3,615
5/3/02

2
Batman
WB $251,188,924
2,201
$40,489,746
2,194
6/23/89

3
X2: X-Men United
Fox $211,317,906
3,749
$85,558,731
3,741
5/2/03

4
Batman Forever
WB $184,031,112
2,893
$52,784,433
2,842
6/16/95

5
Batman Returns
WB $162,831,698
2,640
$45,687,711
2,640
6/19/92

6
X-Men
Fox $157,299,718
3,112
$54,471,475
3,025
7/14/00

7
Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles
NL $135,265,915
2,377
$25,398,367
2,006
3/30/90

8
Superman
WB $134,218,018
-
$7,465,343
508
12/15/78

9
Superman II
WB $108,185,706
1,878
$14,100,523
1,397
6/19/81

10
Batman & Robin
WB $107,325,195
2,942
$42,872,606
2,934
6/20/97

11
Daredevil
Fox $102,524,377
3,474
$40,310,419
3,471
2/14/03

12
Hulk
Uni. $100,593,300
3,674
$62,128,420
3,660
6/20/03

13
Unbreakable
Dis- $95,011,339
2,708
$30,330,771
2,708
11/22/00

14
The Mask of Zorro
Sony $94,095,523
2,515
$22,525,855
2,515
7/17/98

15
Blade II NL $82,348,319
2,707
$32,528,016
2,707
3/22/02

16
Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles II
NL $78,656,813
2,868
$20,030,473
2,868
3/22/91

17
Blade
NL $70,095,974
2,389
$17,073,856
2,322
8/21/98

18
Superman III
WB $59,950,623
1,763
$13,352,357
1,759
6/17/83

19
Spawn
NL $54,969,564
2,604
$21,210,131
2,536
8/1/97

20
The Crow
Mira. $50,691,685
2,119
$11,774,332
1,573
5/13/94

 

[Hitman26]

Don't like it. I've never heard of Hellboy before this movie was announced. Looks stupid, no star power, and Walking Tall will steal some of the tickets by young males. This movie will be lucky to break 15 million in my opinion. Of course I don't look at buzz charts so I don't know how predictable they are. I don't wager so goodluck if you go over, but I just can't see it happening.


Hitman

 

[Oren1]

Well, under 19 million is +500 at intertops so you're a bit off there Hitman. You're right though, in that there really is no star power to help this movie... but I think that the good special effects and interesting looking characters shown in the trailer will counter that. Also, Hellboy will be stealing more tickets from Walking Tall than vice-versa.

 

[Hitman26]

Oren:

It's obvious we disagree on this one. I hope it does 30 million because you have a wager on it and I'm just stating an opinion that I don't even have the guts (or the account) to bet on. I know you've been following the box office for awhile and you always do your DD. I think Walking Tall will out perform Hell Boy this weekend. Of course I'm the same moron that predicted the Passion wouldn't break 20 million in its first weekend. So that should make you feel even better about your wager

Goodluck
Hitman

 

[Big-KO]

I like the value in 10 million or More at Intertops for The Prince and Me.

What A Girl Wants has the exact same concept basically but less star power and it made $11,434,964 opening weekend. With the same theater count, it goes over. Plus the star of The Prince and Me has had big hits before like Save the Last Dance. English movies always seem to do pretty good. For +250 I'll take a chance on 10 million or more.

 

[Big-KO]

Actually, it's not very high on the Moviefone chart... and so I think I'll pass on it.

 

[Oren1]

Thanks Hitman, I can use all the luck I can get.

I don't know about this one... but, even though Walking Tall is #2 on moviefone it took quite a while to get there, it was #9 for most of the day... The Rundown did 19 million, but this one doesn't look nearly as good, although it doesn't look that bad either. The under 15 at WSEX got hammered. I've taken the under 14.9 bracket at something like +100 at intertops for a unit. It's also got 11 points I think on the buzz chart which isn't that bad, so it's gonna be close I think.

 

[Oren1]

theater reports:

"From what I can tell from checking around Movie Tickets, HELBY seems to be selling out often around here, but
-- Libs, Apr 2, 20:00
PRFSH, WTALL and HMRNG don't have any sold-out showings that I've seen."

 

[Oren1]

lookin' good so far I guess:


"

4:20 show Regal Cinema NYC suburb
200 seat theater maybe 40% full, mostly male crowd but not bad for this hour
no snacks running late
White Chicks was the only trailer I saw and it got
decent laughs

The film. Don't think some of the characters were well explained which made some of the story confusing. The action scenes were very well done but repetitive. The unrequited love angle was boring, predictable, and dragged quite a bit. The acting was OK, nothing to write home about. Selma Blair smiles less than


Jeniffer Connelly. Overall a disappointing outing. I think this one may be suffering from a little GFBitis even though the crowd was on par with DAWND 2 wks ago and I'd guess somewhere around those #'s. Not too optimistic about WOM

No sellouts on my way out and I'd say the the lobby was fairly busy ,all ages "

 

[Oren1]

"First the trailers:

Punisher- 0 reaction
I, Robot- (see punisher)
13 going on 30 (what was this doing in front of Hellboy?)- Actually some reaction and a few laughs, had the crowd had a larger female content might have actually had some buzz.
White Chicks- Well recieved. Looks stupid but funny and I did laugh at it along with many others.


It was fun to watch and I enjoyed it quite a bit. I've been looking forward to it and I was worried the movie might not click but judging by the size of the crowd it looks like it'll do well. I went to the first show of the day at 1:10 PM ang got there 30 minutes early and there was already a line-up of about 70 people. First show played on the biggest screen, about 800 seat capacity, and by the time the movie started there were 300-350 people which is a really big crowd for such an early show on a friday at this theatre. Crowd was about 90% male and about 2/3 people in their 20's but a pretty decent over 30 contingent. The humor and action was top notch, I'm so glad they didn't wimp out and try for an all CGI Hellboy. It takes a bit for the plot to sink in, it's pretty convoluted but works out nicely. Worth every penny, which brings up another surprise, the theatres have done away with matinee pricing which judging by the grumbles I heard has just started today. Normally matinees are $7.50 and evening shows are $10.50 but they've changed it to $8.95 for all shows.
"

 

[Oren1]

"Hellboy
Friday, April 2 - 12:45 pm - Famous Players SilverCity
Theatre about 70-75% full, good for a Friday matinee.

Trailers:
Soul Plane (funny, but immature)
I, Robot (disappointing)
13 Going on 30 (funny, but girlish)
White Chicks (so bad)

The film was an intriguing, well-done comic book adaptation. Good production design & direction. Better than I was expecting.
B+
"

 

[Oren1]

projections:
Hellboy 25-27 million
Walking Tall 15.5-16.5
The Prince and Me 9.5-11 million

damn K.O. you should have taken that one afterall. Moviefone can be misleading, obviously. I almost took it too until you said you were backing off

 

[Oren1]

****! shitty Saturday for Hellboy.

estimates:
1 N Hellboy SonR $23,500,000 - 3,028 +3,026 $7,760 $23,500,000 $66 / $25 1
2 N Walking Tall MGM $15,300,000 - 2,836 +2,086 $5,394 $15,300,000 $46 / $25 1
3 1 Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed WB $15,086,000 -48.8% 3,312 - $4,554 $50,044,000 - / - 2
4 N Home on the Range BV $14,000,000 - 3,047 - $4,594 $14,000,000 - / - 1
5 N The Prince and Me Par. $10,000,000 - 2,682 - $3,728 $10,000,000 $22 / $15 1

 

[Big-KO]

Looks like The Prince And Me will go Under by a hair.

 

[Oren1]

yep, it didn't cross 10 mil. WSEX's lines were pretty sharp this week, I was afraid that this was going to happen with Hellboy as it's similar to their line with the Hulk, they might have known it was going to go under and laid a line low enough to bring in the over backers but still have it go under. 0-2 this week, again.

overall:
6-9 +2.15 units.

 

[Gillian]

The summer movies are tougher to call. We'll make our money back!!